Tools for Overcoming the Crisis Phenomena of the Pandemic in the Socio-economic Development of the Countries

The purpose of the study is to identify the specifics of the socio-economic development of the countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to determine effective tools for overcoming the crisis phenomena in the economy. The study of the growth rate of gross domestic product calculated by the expenditure method and the number of cases of coronavirus diseases were the grounds for sampling countries for the following analysis. The analysis of socio-economic indicators and identification of the development's specifics during the pandemic is carried out on the example of the United States, France, Great Britain, Spain, Italy, and Germany. Based on the analysis, the authors concluded that the least effective implementation of anti-COVID measures is in Italy and Spain, as a result of the lack of effective programs to support lending to the real sector, state support for companies in terms of maintaining employment, and making investments to support business. The German public administration system effectively used a package of anti-crisis measures based on the balance of increasing budget and extra-budgetary infusions into the economy, easing monetary policy, so the country managed to maintain investment activity at the pre-crisis level and create a serious basis for the subsequent recovery from the global economic crisis. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

The Spillover Effects of US Unconventional Monetary Policy on Inflation and Non-Inflation Targeting Emerging Markets

This study employs the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to examine the spillover effect of US unconventional monetary policy on inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets post credit crunch and during COVID-19 from 2000Q1 to 2020Q4. Unlike other analyses, this paper adds to the existing body of knowledge by employing a dummy variable to represent the United States' quantitative easing. Other included control variables are equity prices, the federal reserve rate, the exchange rate, central bank assets and the short-term interest rate. This paper estimated two-panel VARs, Model one and Model two, for inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets, respectively. Model one consists of eight inflation-targeting markets, and Model two consists of four non-inflation-targeting countries. Other included control variables are equity prices, the federal reserve rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, and the central bank policy rate. According to the empirical results, the US unconventional monetary policy induces a surge in the exchange rate and a decrease in the central bank policy rate for both inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets. However, there was no significant impact on the equity prices. The empirical results are statistically significant, robust, and consistent with previous studies except for the response of equity prices. Unconventional monetary policy is effective in steering macroeconomic variables in developed economies. The monetary policymakers in emerging markets must also use the currency reserve to stabilise the macroeconomic variables in response to US unconventional monetary policy shocks.

Financial markets and price increases in Europe after the russian-Ukrainian War

The research relevance is predefined by the fact that the European financial market has suffered a direct negative impact due to the russian aggression and violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. All these processes are accompanied by several previously formed and unfavourable trends for socio-economic and financial development, which have become even more severe due to the hostilities. In particular, COVID-19, environmental degradation, rising inflation, deglobalization, insufficient social development of individual countries, as well as fuel and food shortages. The research aims to conclude a comparative analysis of financial policy in European countries and individual countries of the Balkan Peninsula, as well as substantiation of the financial risk management features and the formation of a forecast model of economic stabilization. To achieve the set objectives, scientific methods were used, including analysis method, analogy method, and modelling method. The article analyses expert reports and the results of scientific research on the current state of the financial market and monetary policy in Europe as a result of the russian-Ukrainian war, in particular in the Balkans and Kosovo. The analogy of the directions of financial policy in the period before the russian invasion of the territory of Ukraine with the period of direct aggression of the russian federation is conducted. The fundamental reasons for changes in pricing policy, in particular pricing mechanisms, are characterized. The determining factors of financial risks, tools for assessing the consequences, as well as generalization of management methods for their reduction and elimination in the future are substantiated. The directions of European financial support aimed at the defence sector and socio-economic needs are considered. The practical value of the work is that the conceptual model of strategic development of the European financial market in the context of stabilization processes of international financial policy, as well as food and energy security was formed Copyright © The Author(s).

Monetary Policy Shocks and Resource Misallocations in the Periphery: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Bond Yields

We examine the effects of monetary expansions in the center on the excess yields of government bonds in the periphery. We show that the excess yields widen, and the widening is larger, the larger the misallocation of resources in the periphery. Specifically, we examine a panel of over 2500 local Chinese government bonds in 31 provinces, and find that the expansion of Chinese money supply surprisingly raises the excess yields of local bonds over Chinese sovereign bonds, and the gap is larger, the higher the degree of misallocation or other institutional failures in the province. By treating Chinese provinces as small emerging market open economies, we can draw implications for periphery countries in a common currency area, of an expansion in money supply in the center. Our results suggest that the increase in global liquidity post the 2009 and Covid-19 crises can lead to future fragility in the periphery countries.

Two Major Economic Crises in the Early Twenty-First Century and their Impact on Central Bank Independence

Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy measures, including large-scale purchase of government bonds (quantitative easing). The same approach has been taken by CBs in response to the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 even if the characteristics of this crisis differ from the previous one. As a result of both crises, CBs have become major holders of government bonds and de facto – main creditors of governments. Against rapidly deteriorating fiscal balances, CBs have become hostages of fiscal policies, which compromises their independence. Risks to the CB independence also come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist political pressures.

The Bank of Japan's exchange traded fund purchases: a help or hindrance to market efficiency?

We examine the impact of the Bank of Japan's exchange traded fund (ETF) purchases on two aspects of market efficiency—long-range dependence and price delay—of the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indices. An increase in ETF purchases results in lower long-range dependence for both indices while the impact on the price delay varies according to index and measure. A sub-period analysis shows that the impact on market efficiency varies over time, with the dominant pattern being a delayed harmful effect, followed by a positive impact and thereafter a negative effect. The implications of these findings are discussed.

The Spectre of Financial Dominance in the Eurozone

Differently from previous crises, the European institutions responded promptly to the Covid-19 pandemic by implementing an appropriate policy mix. However, this policy mix has proven to be insufficient for reducing the risks of financial instability in the European Union due to the temporary horizon of the centralised fiscal policy and the persistence of adverse shocks. In fact, the impact of the pandemic was exacerbated by the dramatic consequences of the war in Ukraine. The possible inefficiencies in implementing the Next Generation-EU (NG-EU) and an inadequate response to the Ukraine crisis could trigger, at best, the revival of financial and fiscal dominance in the euro-area economies. However, by using a simple model referred to the post-pandemic and war period, we show that the overburdening of the European Central Bank's role would come with high costs. Hence, we argue that it is necessary to pursue sustainable development based on the successful implementation of the NG-EU and the related transformation of the one-shot centralised fiscal policy into a recurrent policy tool. © 2023, The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Società Italiana di Economia (Italian Economic Association).

The ECB's asset purchase programme: Theory, effects, and risks

In response to the Covid‐19 crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has relaunched a massive asset purchase programme within its combined‐arms monetary strategy. This paper surveys and discusses the theory and the evidence of the central bank's unconventional monetary tools for the euro area. It analyses the role of the asset purchase programmes in the ECB's toolkit and the associated risks, focusing specifically on the gradual unwinding of these unconventional initiatives. Finally, the paper offers some insight into the possible evolution of the ECB's monetary policy.

European Stabilisation Policy After the COVID-19 Pandemic: More Flexible Integration or More Federalism?

Crises are a major driving force behind cooperation in the European Union. During severe crises, cooperation has been enlarged and intensified. The Ukrainian war and the covid-19 pandemic are two examples of this pattern, not least when it comes to the conduct of stabilization policies in the EU. In this chapter, we discuss the implications for the EU of a move towards increased fiscal federalism. First, the role of crises as a driver of political change is analysed. Next, we examine in greater detail, the effect of crises on the design of stabilisation policies in the EU since the introduction of the euro, the common currency. Finally, we discuss the significance of the recent pandemic-induced steps towards increased federalism for the EU. We raise the question as to whether this is a desirable path for the future of European cooperation. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023.

Shifts in the portfolio holdings of euro area investors in the midst of COVID-19: Looking-through investment funds

We study the impact of the COVID-19 shock on the portfolio exposures of euro area investors. The analysis "looks-through" holdings of investment fund shares to first gauge euro area investors' full exposures to global debt securities and listed shares by sector at end-2019 and to subsequently analyse the portfolio shifts in the first and second quarters of 2020. We show heterogeneous patterns across asset classes and sectors, but also across less and more vulnerable euro area countries. In particular, we find a broad-based rebalancing towards domestic sovereign debt at the expense of extra-euro area sovereigns in the first quarter of 2020, consistent with heightened home bias, which however levelled off in the second quarter. On the contrary, for listed shares we find that euro area investors rebalanced away from domestic towards extra-euro area securities in both the first and the second quarter, which may be associated with better relative foreign stock market performance. Many of these shifts were only due to indirect holdings, corroborating the importance of investment funds in assessing investors' exposures-especially for households, insurance companies and pension funds-in particular in times of large shocks. We also confirm the important intermediation role played by investment funds in an analysis focusing on the large-scale portfolio rebalancing observed between 2015 and 2017 during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme.

US post-COVID Economic Recovery and the Fed's Monetary Policy Mistakes

This paper argues that the persistent inflation in the U.S. during the post-COVID economic recovery was mainly the result of the Fed's policy mistake caused by an overestimation of the negative output gap. The paper shows that after a two-quarter contraction, the U.S. economy quickly rebounded and outpaced its potential output, thus remaining in overheating territory. However, policymakers prolonged the monetary expansion beyond the necessary, which contributed to fuel inflation for a more prolonged time. The policy mistake was the result of an inaccurate estimation of potential output. Based on an alternative estimation that uses full employment as a condition, this paper shows that the U.S. economy has been running with a positive output gap since mid-2021. The results illustrate that the Federal Reserve was well-behind the curve in an economy in overexpansion and with a galloping inflation escalating well-above the target.

The Monetary Component in Ensuring the Financial Security of the State

The paper studies the place and degree of the monetary component's influence on the level of financial security of the state in the conditions of political and socio-economic imbalances in the development of Ukraine. The aim of the research is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments, to determine the level of the monetary component's impact on the financial security of the state, as well as to form perspectives for balancing the symbiosis of "monetary policy and national financial security". Based on the conducted research, it is established that in recent years the role of the financial security system formation at all levels has significantly increased, whether it is macroe-conomic security, the security of economical subjects, or the financial security of a household. At the same time, the monetary component plays a significant role in en-suring the financial security of the state, namely, it affects macroeconomic processes in the country. Therefore, in order to ensure macroeconomic stability and economic growth in the context of ensuring the financial security of Ukraine under martial law, it is necessary to improve the mechanisms of monetary policy. The article analyzes the latest threats that lead to the negative impact of the monetary component on the finan-cial security of the state. These include: the consequences of russian military aggression on the economic development of Ukraine, continued COVID-19 outbreaks, the introduc-tion of administrative restrictions on the use of monetary policy instruments by the National bank of Ukraine, violations of the economic security of financial institutions, an insufficient level of financial inclusion, and the contradictory nature of the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. In the context of establishing the decisive role of the monetary component in ensuring the financial security of the state, the adopted devel-opment strategies at the level of national security of Ukraine and at the level of the monetary sector of Ukraine are considered and systematized. The block diagram of the implementation of monetary policy in the context of ensuring the financial security of the state is proposed. It is proved that the mechanism of such interrelationship is im-plemented through the instruments and methods of monetary policy in combination with key macroeconomic indicators. To confirm the proposed hypothesis, the econo-metric model of the influence of monetary instruments on the level of financial security of the state is developed. As a proxy indicator of the financial security of Ukraine, the Financial Stress Index is used, which reflects the current state of the financial sector (without considering future risks) and consists of sub-indices for the banking sector, households, government and corporate securities, and foreign exchange market. Esti-mated and re-estimated models made it possible to determine the most influential indi-cators of the monetary component of the Financial Stress Index, namely: consumer price index;producer price index;GDP to monetary aggregate M2 ratio;cash to GDP ratio;share of foreign currency in monetary aggregate M3;NBU key policy rate (annual average);share of non-performing loans (NPL). The proposed model can be used to forecast the influence of the parameters of the monetary component on the level of financial security of the state. Based on the results of the study, it is proved that, despite the difficult political and economic situation in Ukraine, it is necessary to focus on improving the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, considering the further implementation of the main provi-sions of international documents adopted by International Monetary Fund on this issue.

Recursive expectations approach in policymaking

The primary contribution of modern economics to policy analysis may be the recognition of the crucial role of expectations in policy intervention. The essence of expectations is to think about others' thinking. We argue that policymakers need recursive thinking, that is, the ability to think about thinking and review three policy episodes related to the lack of recursive thinking. We see that the disciplinary divide or the limited scope of recursive thinking on the side of policymakers can cause huge damage to social welfare in times of crisis. Finally, we consider two examples of future agendas in the recursive approach. © 2023, The Author(s).

The new challenges of global banking and finance

The economic downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented uncertainty to the global banking system. Banks are facing critical market challenges driven by uncertain monetary policies, deterioration in credit quality, and regulation and compliance pressures. These challenges highlight the importance of better understanding the new role of financial intermediations in facilitating efficient capital allocations and economic development. This article reviews the related literature on monetary policy uncertainty, bank performance, digital finance, and introduces articles on these themes. Finally, we propose potential areas for future research. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

The role of the European Central Bank in response to COVID19. An evaluation of its mandate

This article evaluates the role of the ECB in response to COVID19. The article assess this response in light of the separation of economic and monetary policy. It concludes that the ECB has responded in a more conservative manner during the COVID19 crisis. The ECB did however confirm its willingness to respond to an economic crisis. The ECB has confirmed this willingness by generating a framework of different policy options. This article then concludes that whilst these policies deviate from a very conservative central bank, they are not perse illegal. There is however some indication that the ECB is deviating from its capital key and thereby violating important rules. This violation may erode some of its legitimacy. This article further briefly assesses whether these changes should be considered permanent. Based upon the structure of policies that the ECB is creating these measures indicate permanence. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of European Integration is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Dupchanchia Model of Students' drop-out control through engagement and appreciation after Covid-19: A Behavioral Policy intervention in the field administration of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a country which has successfully accomplished the millennium development goals. Upon such accomplishment and with new growing consensus with the global community, the country at present is in pursuit of achieving the sustainable development goals with mostly concentrating on the education sector. However, what impacted the growth and pace of the initiatives was the overwhelming impact of Covid-19 and the lockdown afterwards. Academic institutions remained closed at least for two years which resulted in a compromising number of students after the resumption. This study starts from the identification of a genuine problem with original field level data of the gradually declining number of students. It requires policy intervention centrally and locally. Government of Bangladesh has been deploying some traditional method like vocational and stipend system which is involved with large amount of monetary disbursement. This study found that government like Bangladesh should introduce new or customized education policy which can reduce budgetary involvement and change the choice structure of students. This approach and method has the transferability whereby other similar states can adapt. As a crucial part of local government, I have been working as the chief executive officer of a sub-district called Dupchanchia, and coordinating government departments to implement government policy. After rigorous discussion and brainstorming among the local stakeholders and teachers we uncovered that the students have become demotivated, traumatized and panicked of social engagement and any form of shared activities like classes, games and others. It required us to find out a local policy solution followed by a detailed literature review and primary data collection maneuver. Taking twenty schools into consideration for the study, the project initiated a behavioral policy intervention in ten particular schools and did not interfere with the other ten schools. I engaged local teachers, students and other related stakeholders and continued to use six behavioral tools to change the choice structure of the students of ten selected schools. We observed other ten schools without intervening in their environment and academic atmosphere at all. At the end of the study we collected data through key informant interviews and focus group discussion engaging teachers, peoples' representatives and government officials. Behavioral public policy intervention like nudge and engagement approaches are found to have a positive relation with the change in students number and their performance in the academic and co-curricular activities. This approach may contribute to controlling students' drop out in the lower and lower middle income countries after Covid shock. This policy intervention may have some challenges and limitations which need intensive and rigorous pre-study and prolonged design. Nevertheless, it has unlimited opportunities to be addressed. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Technium Social Sciences Journal is the property of Technium Press Constanta and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

THE ECONOMY AND POLICY TRADE-OFFS

Good evening. It is a pleasure and an honour to be here at NIESR to give the annual Dow lecture. We are very lucky in the UK to have high-quality independent institutions such as NIESR focusing on the policy landscape, and in my time on the MPC I have always valued their commentary and research.

Household Savings and Negative Interest Rates

This paper analyses determinants of household savings in a model based on an extension of the disequilibrium savings theory. These extensions follow from the life-cycle, permanent-income and Ricardian-equivalence theories. Based on panel data of 20 countries from the period 2000–2020, fixed-effect least squares estimation procedures are used. The analysis provides evidence that negative interest rates lead to a statistically and economic significant increase in savings. This implies that stimulating household consumption with a monetary policy of negative interest rates is counter-productive. The positive effect of income uncertainty and lagged saving rates gets smaller for negative interest rates, weakening the support for the disequilibrium-savings theory. Larger government deficits increase savings even more when rates are negative, strengthening the Ricardian equivalence effect. The effect of negative interest on the predictions of the life-cycle and permanent-income theories is mixed.

Unconventional monetary policy measures and money markets: Estimating the impact of targeted repo operations on asset prices

We analyse the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures undertaken by central banks in response to COVID-19 crisis on asset prices in money markets. Using novel primary issue-level data of commercial papers (CPs) in India and a staggered difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we examine the effects of On-Tap Targeted Long-Term Repo Operations (On Tap TLTRO) on CP yields of issuers belonging to the targeted sectors. We find that the repo operations lead to a significant reduction of around 30 basis points in the borrowing costs of targeted sectors' issuers. The findings highlight the effectiveness of interest rate and bank lending channels of transmission of unconventional monetary policy.

Reinstating fiscal policy for normal times: Public investment and Public Jobs Programmes

This paper upholds the classical Keynesian position that a laissez-faire market economy lacks a spontaneous tendency to full employment. Focusing on the UK case, it argues that monetary policy could not prevent the economic collapse of 2008-9 or achieve full recovery from the Great Recession that followed. The paper then outlines the case for fiscal policy to regain a permanent status of primacy in modern macroeconomic management, beyond the pandemic emergency. It distinguishes between public investment and automatic stabilisers, reducing discretionary actions to a minimum. It presents the case for re-empowering the State'spublic investment function and for reforming the system of automatic counter-cyclical stabilisers by means of public jobs programmes.